CBO projections · The February 2026 baseline
What does the Congressional Budget Office project for US debt?
In its February 2026 baseline, stored here on , the Congressional Budget Office projects debt held by the public of $56.15 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2036.
CBO's February 2026 baseline: the debt held by the public, the deficit and the debt subject to the limit, fiscal 2025 to 2036
Debt held by the public
Deficit
Debt subject to the limit
Each column is one fiscal year of CBO's projection under current law: CBO's estimate, not a Treasury figure, and not ours. Pointing at a column shows its year and figure.
The lines
- Debt held by the public, fiscal 2036$56.15T
- Deficit, fiscal 2036$3.12T
- Debt subject to the limit, fiscal 2036$63.85T
Inspect and compare dates
The first fiscal year of CBO's February 2026 baseline beside the year five years on and the last year it projects: CBO's estimates. Every year is in the table under "The numbers behind the chart".
| Measure | First year | Five years on | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year | 2025 | 2030 | 2036 |
| Deficit | 1,775,370 | 2,200,642 | 3,115,387 |
| Debt held by the public | 30,172,402 | 40,279,639 | 56,152,391 |
| Debt subject to the limit | 37,526,321 | 47,341,065 | 63,846,379 |
Checked .
The baselineNot our forecast
In CBO's February 2026 baseline, debt held by the public rises by $25.98 trillion from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2036.
The deficit CBO projects goes from $1.78 trillion in fiscal 2025 to $3.12 trillion in fiscal 2036.
Subject to the limitCBO's estimates
In the baseline, debt subject to the limit reaches $63.85 trillion at the end of fiscal 2036.
Understanding CBO's baseline
Where it stands today
In CBO's February 2026 baseline, debt held by the public reaches $56.15T at the end of fiscal 2036.
What is CBO's baseline?
These are CBO's projections under current law, not forecasts of what Congress will do, and not Treasury figures.
Read more
A new baseline replaces this one when CBO publishes it; the vintage above says which one this is.
CBO publishes billions with decimals; we show them in millions, so the last digits are rounding.
The numbers behind the chart
What does CBO project for each fiscal year?February 2026 baseline, $ million, CBO's estimates
| Fiscal year | Deficit | Debt held by the public | Debt subject to the limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,775,370 | 30,172,402 | 37,526,321 |
| 2026 | 1,852,703 | 32,095,165 | 39,581,431 |
| 2027 | 1,887,203 | 34,004,520 | 41,428,070 |
| 2028 | 2,079,658 | 36,092,745 | 43,445,902 |
| 2029 | 2,019,715 | 38,102,757 | 45,341,084 |
| 2030 | 2,200,642 | 40,279,639 | 47,341,065 |
| 2031 | 2,285,695 | 42,528,336 | 49,367,644 |
| 2032 | 2,439,418 | 44,922,490 | 51,630,350 |
| 2033 | 2,780,735 | 47,644,187 | 54,530,151 |
| 2034 | 2,818,500 | 50,393,853 | 57,510,290 |
| 2035 | 2,779,034 | 53,103,223 | 60,538,128 |
| 2036 | 3,115,387 | 56,152,391 | 63,846,379 |
When are the figures from?
Checked .
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